1 Million Phones in 74 Days

Just 74 days after releasing the iPhone, Apple has sold its millionth iPhone. But will Apple hit the dizzying heights of 10 million by the end of 2008 as foretold by the Mr Steve Jobs? A million iPhones in 74 days is very impressive. That works out at a little over 13,500 a day or 560 an hour. Quite literally the iPhone has been flying off the shelves. In comparison it has taken the iPod two years to hit the same milestone.

It is expected that Apple will face stiff competition in 2008 from other cellphone makers, both on price, features and functionality. But back in January when Steve Jobs first unveiled the iPhone he made the claim that 10 million iPhones would be sold by the end of 2008. Will Apple hit that ambitious target or will Steve eat a little humble pie? Hmmmm.

Well for the mathamaticians, there are 111 days left in 2007 which means if the sales continue at the rate that they have Apple can sell approx another 1.5 million iPhones. Next year is a leap year which gives Apple an extra day to play with and an opportunity to sell another 5 million iPhones. 1 million + 1.5 million + 5 million = 7.5 million. That’s in the US only, and assuming that sales continue at the rate that they have over the next 477 days. Realistically, I don’t think that Apple will be able to maintain the iPhone hype and sell that many units in the US by the end of 2008 without further price reductions. I figure that Apple will shift another 1.2 million by the end of the year and perhaps 2 million next year, making a US total of 4.2 million (which, by itself is a grand achievement but not in the volume first thought).

All this means that Apple is going to need to successfully launch the iPhone in other countries to hit that magic 10 million. Not being Apples backyard it’ll be interesting to see if Apple can conjure up the same hype as it has in the US (remember, to most people’s minds, the iPhone has been out for a while now, even if it’s not been available in their country) and whether people will be will to migrate to specific carriers in order to own one. Also, I expect Apple to face stiff competition in 2008 from Nokia, Motorola and other cellphone manufacturers, both on price and features.

Apple will require better arrangements then the AT&T fiasco if it wants to leverage the phones its phone in other countries at the levels required to keep the hype flowing. The other Telco’s will understand the problems associated with the cracking of the iphone and will require greater stringent controls if it is to launch exclusively on their networks. The task or challenge will be if Steve Jobs can wield the same influence outside of the US to continue the rise of the iphone.

This with the increase in clones may be the largest challenge since the launch of windows against the Mac. We await the outcome with baited breath……